Sunday, April 27, 2008

Political Musings (Slightly Uneducated Opinion Warning)

It's so hard to know what will happen in an election season. It looked from early on like this race was going to be a lock for the Democrats no matter who their nominee was. Well, months later, I personally am less convinced. I suspect that every day that this epic battle for the Democratic nomination goes on, the more likely it is that John McCain will win the presidency of the United States. Because he sewed up the GOP nomination so comparatively early, he has more time to unite the Republican base behind him (not, in this case, necessarily an easy task), make money, and go on the offensive against Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and the entire Democratic party. Now yes, the Democrats can still make a strong case against really any Republican, especially one who has had anything in line with President Bush ("Do you really want four more years of THAT??") but if that's their only uniting factor, that could be problematic. My theory is that despite Obama's alleged ability to "bring people together" the Democratic party is in trouble in November no matter what. If Barack Obama is the nominee, I suspect the Hillary people will split in two-- some will move to support Obama, yes, like good Democrats, and some will move over and support McCain because of his moderate tendencies and his experience. If Hillary is the nominee, then I suspect many Obama people will simply not vote, because it's Obama that brings them out in droves, not the Democratic Party. McCain is polling narrowly ahead of both Clinton and Obama. From here out, things could swing either way-- the usual gaffe could effectively end the McCain run, or he could widen his lead. Either way, November is not going to be the expected cakewalk for the Dems-- not by a long shot.

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